The S&P 500 may fall by 20% in October - this forecast was voiced by Scott Minerd, head of investments at Guggenheim Partners, in an interview with CNBC in the middle of the month. In his opinion, high inflation, inflated stock prices and seasonality contribute to this, since the current period is unfavorable for the stock market.

The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the index in question is now inflated, given that the benchmark Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) is at 4 - 5%, the expert noted. For 60-plus years with a similar value of the latter, the P/E ratio has been 15.2x, while this month it is in the 17x to 19x range. That gap has the potential to cause stocks to collapse in the near future, with a 19x level likely to cause a 20% collapse, Minerd warned. He added that many market participants are ignoring the recession in the U.S., hoping for a soft landing. He himself was cautious in suggesting that a recession had already occurred, but it should be noted that the negative dynamics of its GDP in the first two quarters, according to the definition of recession, was a clear indication of that.